2022 Daytona 500 odds, predictions: Surprising NASCAR picks from same model that nailed Kyle Larson’s wins

The 2022 Daytona 500 starting grid has yet to be determined, but we know the field will be short on former champions. After eight former winners took part in last year’s race, there are only five who could be included in this year’s 2022 Daytona 500 starting lineup. Denny Hamlin is the only multi-winner in the field, as he’s claimed three checkered flags, while Michael McDowell, Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon and Kevin Harvick have one win apiece.

Daytona International Speedway will host the 2022 Daytona 500 on Sunday, Feb. 20 at 2:30 p.m. ET. Hamlin is the 17-2 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook in the latest 2022 Daytona 500 odds, while Busch is an 18-1 long shot. Other 2022 NASCAR at Daytona contenders include Kyle Larson (10-1), Chase Elliott (10-1) and Ryan Blaney (12-1). Before scouring the 2022 Daytona 500 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout.

It also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it called five of Larson’s wins during a historic season. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on its NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 Daytona 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Daytona 500 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Daytona 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he’s a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A two-time Cup Series champion, Busch had another strong season last year and finished in ninth place. He won two races and has finished in the top 10 of the final Cup Series standings nine straight years.

Few drivers have the experience at Daytona International Speedway that Busch possesses as he’s been racing there on the Cup Series since 2005. He’s won once at Daytona before and came close numerous other times, with four runner-up finishes. That includes the 2019 Daytona 500, when Busch won Stage 1 and led the race for 37 laps only to succumb to Hamlin in overtime.

And a massive shocker: Hamlin, the top Vegas favorite at 17-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. Hamlin finished third in last year’s Cup Series, but that was due to a strong start to the season as he faltered down the stretch. After securing nine top-five finishes in his first 12 races, he had just 10 top-fives over his next 24 races. 

While Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner (2016, 2019, 2020), he hasn’t thoroughly dominated the track as you would expect from someone with three wins there. Those are his only three wins on the track across 32 career Cup Series appearances and he finished a disappointing 13th in his last Daytona outing. Given his short odds, there are far better values in this open 2022 Daytona 500 field.

How to make 2022 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2022 NASCAR Daytona odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Daytona 500? And which long shots do you need to back? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Daytona odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Daytona 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season

2022 Daytona 500 odds

Denny Hamlin 17-2

Chase Elliot 10-1

Kyle Larson 10-1

Ryan Blaney 12-1

Joey Logano 12-1

Will Byron 14-1

Bubba Wallace 15-1

Brad Keselowski 15-1

Kyle Busch 15-1

Kurt Busch 18-1

Kevin Harvick 18-1

Alex Bowman 18-1

Martin Truex Jr. 20-1

Aric Almirola 20-1

Austin Dillon 28-1

Christopher Bell 28-1

Tyler Reddick 30-1

Austin Cindric 30-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1

A.J. Allmendinger 40-1

Ross Chastain 40-1

Chris Buescher 40-1

Chase Briscoe 50-1

Michael McDowell 50-1

Justin Haley 50-1

Daniel Suarez 60-1

Erik Jones 60-1

Daniel Hemric 60-1

Cole Custer 75-1

Harrison Burton 75-1

Corey Lajoie 100-1

Kaz Grala 100-1

Noah Gragson 100-1

Ty Dillon 100-1

JJ Yeley 100-1

David Ragan 125-1

Todd Gilliland 200-1

Timmy Hill 750-1

Jacques Villeneuve 1000-1

B.J. McLeod 1000-1 

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