Antifragility, Bitcoin, and Story Football Draft Approach


Antifragility, Bitcoin, and Story Football Draft Approach

“Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist, student, mathematical statistician, and aged likelihood trader and threat analyst, whose work concerns concerns of randomness, likelihood, and uncertainty.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb


Life is a persevering with circulate of choices, the outcomes of which form our futures. On this constant churn of choices, we seek to enhance our odds in opposition to the inevitability of randomness, on every occasion that it is likely you’ll well maybe presumably additionally think. We must make smartly-informed choices to easiest situation ourselves to profit from these exterior uncertainties. All of us expend this probabilistic scheme of their day-to-day lives, whether it is realized or no longer, i.e., “If I need essentially the most provocative slay end result, should peaceable I attain X or Y? Which one has the higher likelihood of an even slay end result? That’s the one I exhaust.”

In uncover to decide, you must address the implications (which it is likely you’ll well additionally know) in resolution to the likelihood (which it is likely you’ll well additionally’t know) — Nassim Nicholas Taleb

As it seems to be, Bitcoin believers and myth soccer gamers are kindred spirits when it involves making choices that profit from chaos. Bitcoiners and an even sect of myth soccer drafters are both making a wager on probabilistic outcomes the expend of the equivalent foundational precept. A precept that became conceived and popularized by student, mathematical statistician, and aged threat analyst, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. That precept is is known as “antifragility.”

Qualities of the antifragile are outlined by Taleb as follows:

“Some issues profit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors. Yet in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is never a note for the explicit opposite of fragile. Allow us to name it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the equivalent; the antifragile gets better.”


As publicity to stressors earn over time, the “fragile” spoil, however the “antifragile” grow stronger.

In contemporary times, many myth footballers gravitated in direction of a new drafting scheme, popularized by Shawn Siegele in 2013. That scheme is is known as “Zero-RB” drafting. Merely assign, to avoid drafting any running aid situation gamers till the later rounds of their drafts on every occasion that it is likely you’ll well maybe presumably additionally think.

How Does The “Zero RB” Draft Approach Work?

The design for the Zero RB draft scheme is to make essentially the most of your early round, higher draft capital on gamers with much less downside threat. Since the running aid situation experiences seriously extra accidents than other participant positions, Zero RB drafters learn about to avoid spending excessive draft capital on gamers that lift added threat. As an different, they load up on positions with extra favorable threat profiles in early rounds, bask in the broad receiver. This permits them to make expend of the middle and gradual rounds of drafts to protect a bunch of antifragile bets, by amassing low-mark, excessive-upside running backs.

Now not easiest does warding off drafting running backs in early rounds minimize threat publicity, however taking a bunch of gradual-round journey throws at Working Backs will pay off at a higher threat/return fee than every other situation. Why? Because running backs disproportionately profit from the highly fragile landscape that the NFL offers. Admire every antifragile wager, mid-gradual round running backs profit from chaos, disorder, and/or random occasions bask in multi-week or season ending accidents. These occasions can cripple a myth personnel, and spoil what as soon as regarded bask in a smartly-balanced roster constructing.

“Working backs are at the superb threat of damage, and their accidents average seriously longer in length than every other situation.” — Michael Gertz,

Some command examples of the NFL’s highly fragile landscape:

  • Participant sustains damage in practicing camp.
  • Participant sustains multi-week or season-ending damage.
  • Participant fails a drug take a look at; suspended just a few weeks.
  • Rookie participant outshines expectations; unseats incumbent participant.
  • Participant has a psychotic breakdown and gets released by just a few groups.
  • Participant smitten by sexual assault allegations, placed on Commisioner’s exempt checklist rendering him unable to play.

Other folks that function from these fragile circumstances are no longer mainly the groups that drafted running backs in the early rounds. As an different, alternative these fragile occasions make bigger the likelihood that a Zero RB roster constructing is the successful scheme. These multi-week or season-ending accidents trigger the running backs amassed in the mid-gradual draft rounds to make bigger in cost, because it becomes extra seemingly that they crack the beginning lineup for their personnel.

These gamers are the low-threat, excessive-upside bets that you if truth be told must have made in the wake of “Gloomy Swan” occasions. They are the backups, the newcomers, and the gamers with freak athletic profiles who’s alternatives to accrue myth elements to your personnel are about to make bigger seriously in the face of chaos.

TL;DR: The Zero-RB scheme is easy. Flip fragility on it’s head, and gather a scheme to profit from it. Make an antifragile roster in a fragile NFL landscape.


What Does This Dangle To Dangle With Bitcoin?

The strategic balancing of financial incentives has allowed Bitcoin to attain one thing that has by no technique sooner than been achievable by humankind; absolute scarcity. A provably finite supply which is with out concerns verifiable, and overtly displayed to somebody across the sector.

Bitcoin would be essentially the most important alignment of computer science, economics, and game thought ever stumbled on. Since 2009, its network has persisted to grow repeatedly and globally. Bitcoin’s core cost proposition is no longer that it is likely you’ll well pay of us at the moment and cheaply. It’s no longer coming for the likes of PayPal or Visa. It’s coming for retailer of cost property bask in gold, exact estate, or aesthetic art, and at final the U.S. buck. Bitcoin is being amassed by investors because they’re recognizing that no longer easiest does it have same monetary properties to gold, however that bitcoin seriously outperforms them across most of these measures. It also offers about a additional properties that we’ve by no technique seen sooner than in a monetary asset. Being purely digital recordsdata, bitcoin could be very transportable, highly divisible, and overtly programmable.

“Macro investor Paul Tudor Jones is buying Bitcoin as a hedge in opposition to the inflation he sees coming from central bank cash printing, telling purchasers it reminds him of the role gold performed in the 1970s.” — Bloomberg

As of today, the opportunity mark is low because we’re peaceable early in Bitcoin’s expertise adoption cycle. While being early also does mean it carries extra threat, the aptitude upside if bitcoin succeeds in turning into an cyber web-native world cash seriously outweighs that downside. It’s a methodology that Nassim Taleb would say has highly favorable “asymmetry.” Taleb explains this opportunity as follows:

“Antifragility implies extra to function than to lose, equals extra upside than downside, equals (favorable) asymmetry.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb


In distinction to Zero RB draft scheme, the assign gamers seek to earn running backs in the later phases of a draft, Bitcoiners seek to earn bitcoin in the early phases of its expertise adoption existence cycle.

In similarity to Zero RB draft scheme, the assign gamers seek to raze an antifragile roster, Bitcoiners seek to earn bitcoin, strengthening their situation in the face of a precarious and highly unsure surrounding environment.

Within the occasion you’re allocating some of you cash into bitcoin, regardless of how big or minute your holdings, you’re placing an antifragile wager. It is a ways of project that bitcoin has the properties, qualities and expertise to outperform other retailer of cost property, and styles of cash. Bitcoin also carries the a lot decrease likelihood slay end result of replacing the U.S. buck because the area monetary unpleasant in the longer time horizon. The functionality returns in these scenarios highly outweigh the novel opportunity mark, constructing an investment opportunity with uneven upside doable.

Why Does Bitcoin Income From Fragile Events?

Bitcoin is programmable. This permits it to adapt, maneuver around and overcome the roadblocks that it faces. Bitcoin is an antifragile selection that exists inner a fragile advanced draw, upright bask in the damage-wrought myth soccer landscape. It is a ways antifragile because it runs on a decentralized, globally-allotted network of computer methods and is constructed with open-supply code that is totally verifiable to any and all observers. This assures that two key tips protect in assign:

  • RULE #1: There might well additionally no longer ever be higher than 21 million bitcoin. All of the provision wish to be overtly auditable by somebody.
  • RULE #2: No one can replace Rule #1 with out an amazing consensus from 51% of the network’s users.

Bitcoin doesn’t merely upright resist replace with the following tips. Every failed attempt also technique that Bitcoin adapts, improves, and perception in its permanence grows stronger for this reason.

For a deeper dive into the inform traits that make Bitcoin so antifragile, I highly counsel studying Parker Lewis’ sequence “Progressively, Then Suddenly”.

Here’s a like a flash snapshot:

“Its decentralized and permissionless tell eliminates single elements of failure and drives innovation, in the slay making certain both its survival and a relentless strengthening of its immune draw as a feature of time, trial and mistake. Bitcoin is beyond resilient. The resilient resists shocks and stays the equivalent; the Bitcoin network gets better. While it is straightforward to fall loyal into a trap, believing Bitcoin to be untested, unproven and no longer permanent, it is exactly the opposite. Bitcoin has been continually tested for occurring 12 years, every time proving to be as a lot as the topic and rising from every take a look at in a stronger tell.” — Parker Lewis

On A Lengthy Ample Timescale…

The timescale for the antifragile bets of myth soccer gamers to play out is set 17 weeks, the length of the NFL recurring season. Nonetheless, for Bitcoin the timescale is unknowable and indefinitely extending. One doable timescale to take into consideration for context will be the ancient timeline of world reserve currencies, visualized below:


The reserve currency transition is a cycle that has mainly lasted in ancient past somewhere between 80 to 110 years. The U.S. buck has been the legitimate world reserve currency for 73 years now.

As it stands today for Bitcoin, we’re currently in the gradual rounds of the draft. As additional time goes by, assuming Bitcoin continues to bolster and function adoption, the opportunity mark becomes higher. On the present time, it could well maybe additionally mark a minute you a twelveth or thirteenth round protect for some bitcoin. In about a years, it is likely you’ll well maybe presumably additionally be paying up alongside with your first rounder.

TL;DR: The Bitcoiner’s scheme is easy. Flip fragility on it’s head, and gather a scheme to profit from it. Make an antifragile portfolio in a fragile monetary landscape.


Zero RB drafters and Bitcoiners are both the expend of the equivalent decision-making precept (antifragility) to reduction them in decision making amongst inevitable randomness. They assign faith in provable math as an different of human error. Every makes expend of computer science as a tool for reinforcing their decision making, in the hopes of accelerating their odds of an advantageous future slay end result.

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